Bitcoin (BTC) Cycle: Aiming for $155,000 Peak by August 2025

Since its launch in 2009 Bitcoin has experienced several cycles characterized by bull and bear market phases. These cycles give insight into the behaviour of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, enabling investors such as traders to make informed decisions. Recently, bitcoin attained a new all-time high of $73,737.94 which has pushed the market sentiment towards euphoria. What this also means is that the wealth transfer from bitcoin holders to speculators has begun.

In this article, we analyze how the market can predict bitcoin’s next market top using its ATH. In the process we will make BTC price predictions for 2024 and 2025. Finally, we will anticipate the long term bitcoin price trend as we move towards 2030.

Bitcoin’s Historical Cycles: Analyzing the Lows and Predicting Future Peaks

On 14 March bitcoin attained a new all-time high of $73,737.94 after clearing the previous, long term ATH of $69,200. Accordingly, the recent bitcoin peak is the fourth ATH cycle in bitcoin history.

It is also important to note that apart from attaining a new ATH bitcoin recorded other higher achievements such as its realized cap. The number one cryptocurrency reached a new Realized Cap of $504 B after having $40B capital inflow since 1 March.

The bitcoin realized cap is increasing at a rate of $54 B/month and is approaching the level last observed towards its 2021 price peak. The tremendous success of the spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States has contributed to the cryptocurrency’s remarkable gains.

As said, bitcoin has witnessed many peaks and lows over the years. These cycles help us to conduct BTC market analysis in order to forecast the asset’s price moves thereby helping investors to adopt best bitcoin trading strategies.

The fact is that the bitcoin cycles have similarities. More importantly, the cycles enable market analysts to estimate bitcoin rise and fall through forecasting its market bottoms and tops. For example, market analysts can use the proportionate decrease between price ranges of successive bitcoin cycles to estimate the coin’s likely next peak. Let’s use data from the previous cycles to illustrate this point.

The first uptrend started when bitcoin had a value of $0.01 and ended when it peaked at $31.90 in June 2011. After that peak the bitcoin price plummeted to $2.01 in November of the same year. That price dip was followed by the first bull run that started in November 2012 which led to bitcoin’s first recognized ATH of $1,177 attained in November 2013. As a result of that first bitcoin bull run the value of bitcoin increased by 586x.

After reaching that peak, the next thing was a prolonged bitcoin price fall which pushed BTC to a market bottom of $164 in January 2015. As you would anticipate, another uptrend which stretched to December 2017 commenced.

The next major event was the bitcoin halving and mining event that occurred in July 2016. During that second bitcoin cycle the BTC price rose by 121x to reach $19,764 as the following graph shows.

BTC chart indicating Bitcoin Rise and Fall between 2011 and 2022 TradingView

As you note from the bitcoin price chart above, bitcoin experienced cyclical price movements since 2011. Already, we have discussed the first two bitcoin halving events and their impact on its price.

Essentially, its price rise also led to a surge in the bitcoin market cap which positioned the coin as a suitable investment asset. Historically, the bitcoin halving countdown generated much bullish momentum and the same is happening during the current phase, witnessed by the recent BTC all-time high.

As you realized above, a new peak is followed by a downtrend. In the same manner, after a market bottom another uptrend begins that ends in a macro peak. Therefore, after the 2017 peak another bear market started in 2018 which led to a bottom of $3,148 in December of the same year.

However, the cycle was slowed down by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic which led to the March 2020 crypto crash. After the third halving event that took place in May 2020 the bitcoin price movement became parabolic which led to a double peak in November 2021 and an ATH of $69,000. During that third cycle the bitcoin price increased by 22x.

As you may anticipate, using these peaks and lows astute market analysts can predict the future of bitcoin price. Nonetheless, it is important to note that bitcoin market predictions may not be hundred percent accurate but they often provide near correct guesses. Through such analyses and predictions we can derive bitcoin investment tips.

Bitcoin Price Soars to All Time High: A Cyclical Multiplier Analysis Post 2022 Bear Market

Using the information we discussed above let’s make a brief post-2022 halving event BTC market analysis. We will use the 2022 bear market historical Bitcoin prices to evaluate changes in the value of BTC. As a fact, bitcoin recorded a macro bottom of $15,495 in November 2022.

Despite multiple short term bitcoin price fluctuations the value of BTC has been gradually increasing since that time. Right now, we can use the descending sequence of multipliers of successive cycles to predict the bitcoin price after the 2024 bitcoin halving event.

Looking at the previous historical cycles we can see that the bitcoin price has been rising lower and lower above its most recent ATH. The following diagram shows the data from previous bitcoin cycles.

The estimated cyclical multiplier for the current cycle is 10x. The multiplier 2.2x means that bitcoin’s next macro peak will be 2.2 times the recent one. What this means is that if the bitcoin price was to increase by 10 x during this cycle it would peak at around $155,000 which is close to 2.2x $69,000, the recent macro peak.

Therefore the estimated BTC price prediction of $155,000 syncs with the historical multipliers of the bitcoin price changes based on the count from the macro lows to peaks as well as increases from previous all-time highs.

Price Prediction for 2024 and 2025

We have already used the cyclical multiplier analysis to predict bitcoin price for 2025. Based on the bitcoin cycle analysis BTC will likely fluctuate between $155,000 and $175,000 in 2025. The coin may attain the macro peak in August of that year. Of course, there may be a slight variance from this BTC price prediction.

With the bitcoin price today being $66,475 and after attaining a new all-time high of $73,737.94 on 14 March the market is confident that BTC will reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. The reasons for bitcoin rise include the capital inflow into BTC ETFs and the oncoming April bitcoin halving.

Since the first halving event the bitcoin halving effects have been consistent including bull markets that follow them. One of the reasons for bitcoin’s rise is the continued decrease in its market supply. Although bitcoin has a current circulating supply of 19.6 million, only 2.3 million are available on the exchanges.

Source: x.com

As you note Robert Kiyosaki, the influential entrepreneur and author, also believes that bitcoin will reach $100,000 in 2024. The entire crypto market will likely experience the bitcoin halving impact as prices of most cryptocurrencies are likely to shoot up in correlation with the rise in the value of BTC.

Conclusion

Based on the cyclical multiplier analysis the price of bitcoin will likely reach $155,000 in August 2025. In the meantime, the market expects the value of bitcoin to fluctuate around $100,000 by June this year. The continued capital inflows into spot BTC ETFs and the bitcoin halving impact are the possible catalysts for the current bitcoin bullish outlook.